Cameroon after Biya: Who will succeed Africa’s longest?serving leader?

March 24, 2025 1 Comment

The Africa Report | Cameroon after Biya: Who will succeed Africa’s longest?serving leader?

Succession tensions threaten stability in Africa’s enduring one-man regime.

Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982, presenting his long tenure as a guarantor of stability. Yet Marie-Emmanuelle Pommerolle, an expert on Cameroon, argues precisely the opposite: Biya’s prolonged grip on power has generated crises.

The regime’s entrenched elites resist meaningful reform, while economic stagnation and unresolved regional tensions, especially in the Anglophone regions, threaten national unity.

Who are the main contenders within Biya’s ruling circle?

Two key figures dominate the speculation. Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the powerful secretary-general of the presidency, is positioning himself strategically by campaigning on Biya’s behalf, often overshadowing the prime minister. Franck Biya, the president’s son, is also rumoured to be a potential successor, though he remains politically discreet.

Meanwhile, Joseph Dion Ngute, Cameroon’s prime minister, seeks to assert his political relevance independently, notably leveraging economic events to strengthen his position against Ngoh Ngoh’s dominance.

What does the opposition offer?

The opposition remains divided but has notable leaders. Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (CRM), who challenged Biya significantly in 2018, is again leading a broad coalition. Kamto, popular yet controversial, symbolises the hopes of many seeking change.

Joshua Osih of the Social Democratic Front (SDF) seeks a moderate path, targeting younger, urban voters. Yet his strategy risks alienating the grassroots supporters who once formed the party’s backbone.

Cabral Libii, younger and media-savvy, appeals to disillusioned youth, while veteran Garga Haman Adji is viewed with suspicion, sometimes accused of collaborating with Biya’s regime to dilute opposition effectiveness.

Could election integrity affect succession?

Enow Abrams Egbe, head of Elections Cameroon (Elecam), faces accusations of partiality. Elecam’s perceived lack of independence, highlighted by opposition complaints about electoral transparency, risks undermining the legitimacy of any future election.

What role might religious institutions play?

The Catholic Church, influential in Cameroonian politics, presents mixed signals. Archbishop Jean Mbarga of Yaoundé openly supports Biya, potentially aiding a smooth succession aligned with the current regime. However, other prominent bishops, including Samuel Kleda, criticise Biya’s extended tenure, reflecting broader societal divisions that might intensify post-Biya.

Could diaspora activists shape Cameroon’s future?

The diaspora-based Brigade Anti-Sardinards (BAS), critical of Biya’s government, remains a vocal presence abroad, notably staging provocative protests. While officially dismissed by Cameroon’s authorities, their ability to influence public discourse within Cameroon and internationally makes them an unpredictable force.

Is France’s influence waning?

Historically supportive, France’s relationship with Biya’s regime faces growing scrutiny amid rising anti-French sentiment. Younger Cameroonians increasingly question France’s paternalistic approach, demanding greater national autonomy.

Will the Anglophone crisis derail succession?

The ongoing conflict in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions, driven by deep-rooted grievances, has severely tested national unity. A successor who fails to address Anglophone marginalisation risks escalating tensions further, potentially destabilising the country.

Cameroon faces significant uncertainty as it approaches the post-Biya era. The country’s stability hinges on whether a genuine political transition, inclusive governance and credible elections can finally emerge from beneath the shadow of Africa’s longest-serving leader.

Cameroon after Biya: Who will succeed Africa’s longest?serving leader?

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